UK consumer price inflation, the relevant measure for the North’s economy, was at 2.6% in June, down from 2.8% in May. Food inflation was just 1.7%, below the rates experienced during the 2022–2024 inflationary spike. The inflation rate has fallen, but the general price level remains roughly 30% above where it was in 2021. Lower inflation simply means prices are rising more slowly. It does not undo previous price increases already experienced by working people.
Further problems for living standards lie ahead. The UK central bank expects food inflation to rise in the final quarter of 2026 as higher energy costs from American aggression in Iran work their way through the economy – at anywhere between 3.5% and 5% by December. Power NI hiked electricity prices by 6.2% from 1 July, SSE Airtricity by 6.2% from 1 August, and Budget Energy by nearly 10% from 4 August.
Firmus Energy increased gas tariffs by nearly 16% from July. Heating oil is also showing signs of rising again: the average price of 500 litres increased from £346 in July to £440 in mid-August.
This should be considered alongside the fact that 61% of households in the North use oil as their main source of central heating, compared with only 36% using gas. If such increases persist into the autumn/winter heating season, that will hurt many financially.
How well can the working class in the North protect itself from these pressures? Median monthly pay stood at approximately £2,480 in June 2026, up 4.9% from a year earlier. That is a positive gap between nominal wage growth and current inflation, but trends break down by and within sector. Private-sector median pay in the North was 8.8% higher in 2025 than in 2019. Spread across six years, this amounts to real earnings growth of just 1.5% a year: a modest improvement in purchasing power, interrupted by a severe inflationary squeeze in 2022–2024. It is very far from representing an advance in living standards. The figure is also a sector-wide median: not every individual private-sector worker has experienced this level of real wage growth.
The current labour disputes involving around 280 workers across Balcas Timber and Pilgrim Foods in Fermanagh show the ongoing squeeze affecting sections of the low-paid, private-sector workforce, some of whom in these disputes report relying on foodbanks.
Public-sector workers’ pay standing is much weaker, reflecting the fiscal crisis of Northern public finances. Median real public-sector earnings are only 0.1% above their 2019 level. In effect, recent pay settlements barely touch purchasing power lost during the preceding inflationary period. There has been no sustained improvement in real earnings.
One further marker of working-class vulnerability comes from the latest Consumer Council Household Expenditure Tracker: it highlights average weekly discretionary income at around £140. For the lowest-income quarter of Northern Irish households, only around £53 remained each week after essential expenditure. In real terms, the purchasing power of discretionary income among the lowest-income quarter remained more than a third below its level at the beginning of 2021. This is not an economy delivering a good standard of living for a significant number.
An immediate industrial task of all pro-labour forces is to defend and extend the recovery in real wages while protecting employment. Pay settlements should, at minimum, prevent renewed inflation from eroding workers’ purchasing power, with particular attention to low-paid workers and parts of the public sector.
The renewed rise in energy and food costs should be watched closely across autumn. If higher costs emerge, the labour movement will have to marshal its resources in those sectors where it is best organised. The costs of renewed inflation should not be borne by the working class.
Industrial Committee, CPI
