The results of the General Election are now in, with the two major establishment parties – Fianna Fáil (48 seats) and Fine Gael (38) just falling two short of securing an overall majority with 86 TDs combined. Elsewhere, Sinn Féin won 39 seats, the Labour Party won 11, the Social Democrats 11, and the Green Party lost all but one of its outgoing TDs, in an almost a complete wipeout. The number of independents elected was 23 while Solidarity-People Before Profit returned with three TDs.
Over the next couple of weeks, we will be treated to a back and forth over who will join the two main parties to secure a government for the next five years. Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael will spend some time arguing if there will be a rotating Taoiseach and if the number of ministers will be split 50-50. Fine Gael will certainly want to be seen as an equal partner in government.
The Labour Party immediately declared that it was prepared to join in government formation talks, as did the Social Democrats. Sinn Féin, in the last week of the election campaign, made it clear they wanted to be involved in any talks on government formation, in particular with Fianna Fáil. All of these parties sat in TV studios talking about government formation while the stinking carcass of the Green Party was being disposed of by the public. Each of the possible junior partners will have little if any leverage in talks on the formation of the next government.
The elections have shown a number of things regarding how the people see solutions to the main problems in our society.
Nearly 50% of the electorate were not motivated enough to leave their homes to go and vote, mainly in working class communities.
Of those who did vote, the overwhelming majority voted for more of the same. The elections were and are a snapshot of the political consciousness of the people and what is clear is that the dominant ideology remains very strong.
A previous article in Socialist Voice outlined the stability of the existing order and why housing would not be the electoral issue the left hoped it would be. The crisis in the public health system got very little coverage. The contented middle all have their private health insurance so standing in a hospital queue is something they will not have to face.
What is clear is that the two main establishment parties, after they have completed their shadowboxing in relation to forming the government, will most likely go for independents to complete their majority. So, the LP/SD/SF will all be left outside the door having no political leverage.
The whole election was a contest about who could divvy up the goodies and how they would spend the government surplus. They all appealed to the contented middle, with political debates and discussion more about the management style of the economy and not about the nature of society and the domination of foreign direct investment (FDI) and global finance capital.
Sinn Féin has, over the last four years, sprinted headlong to the centre in an effort to portray itself as a safe pair of hands to be in government. It then had to try and recover some degree of separation from the establishment and appealed to voters with more radical policies, in the hope of at least securing its core vote within working class communities. In reality, the only thing that separates Sinn Féin from the establishment is its call for a border poll.
So, the elections have reinforced the status quo and ensured that there will be no change in the foreseeable future. The coming period will prove to be very critical for the future direction of our country. The incoming Taoiseach, Micheál Martin, is deeply politically committed to meeting the needs of imperialism, both of the US and the EU.
We need to mobilise now to prevent the removal of the Triple Lock on deployment of Irish defence forces abroad. Martin is committed to ever greater military engagement and involvement with EU defence and, if possible, to work closer with, if not outright join, NATO.
The commodification of shelter (housing) will only intensify and the stranglehold of vulture funds (global finance capital) will only tighten and become more intense.
We need to continue to build solidarity with the Palestinian people, linking the use of Shannon Airport to the US/Zionist war against the Palestinian people.
There needs to be a serious rethink on the left, and in particular amongst the anti-imperialist left, in regard to how we build the political consciousness of working people. That is, a combination of struggles at local and national level, and political education. More of our work must be at a grassroots level. Listen to the people, talking with the people and not talking at the people.
We have entered a new phase of struggle for a better Ireland. A better Ireland that will not be secured during an election cycle but rather through a full, radical transformation economically, politically and culturally. That will require real engagement with working people.
