“Those who forget the past are condemned to repeat it.”
It might be a cliché, but that doesn’t mean it isn’t accurate. The upcoming 26 County elections will most likely have an outcome which will bear unpleasant similarities with the 1979 results in Britain.
Throughout the 1970s, the National Front (NF) in Britain had grown in influence within sections of the working class who had bought into their anti-immigrant rhetoric. Openly fascist, the NF also encouraged racist violence against Blacks, Asians, Afro-Caribbeans, etc. They of course also targeted the Irish, which many of our own families and friends experienced first-hand.
As the election date approached, the Tory party increased its own racist messaging and presented immigration policies in line with the issues and demands being promoted by the NF. This was a winning approach, as many who had been convinced by the NF rabble rousers that foreigners were the source of all their woes voted Tory. They believed the racist rhetoric: although they didn’t feel comfortable with the hooliganism nor the skinhead and boot boy image of the NF, they were prepared to support the more “respectable” Conservative Party to get the same result. The Tories achieved an historic victory, and Margaret Thatcher was in power.
The next decade saw open class war against the British workers (the miners’ strike, etc), the devastation of communities, downgrading of services, and let’s not forget the savagery aimed at Irish Republicans. Sections of the British working class, hoodwinked by racists, had voted for the very people who turned out to be their worst enemy.
Can you see the parallels with Ireland in 2024?
Justified anger with the government over numerous issues, a blundering and incompetent response to an increase in immigration numbers, and a disgraceful refusal to engage with communities to address tension has all opened the door for racist ideology to infect communities and gain influence. This has produced an increase in racism in many areas, aggressive protests targeting asylum seekers, arson and violence and, of course, a moderate increase in the electoral fortunes of racist candidates in recent local authority elections.
Importantly, the focus on immigrants (and by corollary, all “foreigners”) as the cause of multiple problems – housing, hospital overcrowding, crime and public safety, etc – provides a convenient deflection from those in power who are actually responsible for these crises.
Couple this with the relentless targeting of opposition political figures, rather than the government parties, by racists and the result has been predictable. From day one of the anti-immigrant gatherings, slogans such as “Sinn Féin are Traitors” were promoted by far-right figures manipulating the protests, and these have since become a common trope. So too did the idea that all progressives, socialists and those on the left were somehow conspiring to destroy Ireland, rather than focusing on the actual political parties in government, their policies and economic agenda.
Just over two years ago, there was endless speculation about the possibility Sinn Féin in government. That seems like a distant memory now, as it seems almost certain that the next government will comprise of Fine Gael, Fianna Fáil and some mudguard or other to make up the numbers.
As with the Tories in Britain in the 1970s, the Irish mainstream parties are happily adopting the anti-immigrant agenda to boost their election campaigns. This has involved a “get tough” attitude expressed in numerous ways: cracking down on “tent cities”, talk of chartering planes to facilitate “mass deportations”, etc all feeding into the very successful racist branding of all foreigners as “illegals”, a deliberate de-humanising and scare mongering ploy.
We have recently seen Taoiseach Simon Harris directly link immigration with increased homelessness, a clear ploy to shift blame away from the government. Under FG’s most recent years in power, homelessness figures have increased from just under 4,000 to over 14,000, which currently includes almost four and a half thousand children. So of course, he’s shrewd enough to blame foreigners rather than his own party’s policies and admit culpability for the current housing, homeless and rental crisis, which should be number one on everybody’s list of concerns.
It’s important to state that not all those in our communities who expressed anti-immigrant sentiments are inherently racist. Misinformation, scaremongering, and existing anger have all combined to create a response that has certainly become racist and xenophobic.
The far right and ideologically racist will only have moderate electoral success. The mainstreaming of their ideas and normalisation of racism is their real achievement.
Just as happened in Britain in 1979, the mainstream parties will reap the electoral rewards. While some revel in the chaos, many who have bought into the anti-immigrant hysteria do not like the arson and violence nor the drug dealers and anti-social elements leading the charge on the streets. If these people can find an outlet for their new-found anti-immigrant stance in the mainstream they will go there.
When Fine Gael are returned to power, we can expect more of the same policies and crises we have endured for the previous years of their rule. They are anti-working class, and the racist and far-right rabble-rousers are the useful idiots who will help them return to power. They are the real “controlled opposition”.
