US economist and diplomat John Kenneth Galbraith coined the phrase and concept of a “contented majority”. This “majority” he sees as being those in the western world who benefit from the current state of affairs, even if unevenly, and dominate politically producing a “culture of contentment”, showing disdain for those left behind or left out of the capitalist economic system. While Galbraith calls it a majority, he in fact acknowledges that it isn’t a numeric majority but a majority of the politically active and politically powerful sections of society.
This group does in fact spread across class lines as not all are “capitalists”: many are the managerial class or wealthier working class who have seen their fortunes and status rise with the accumulation process, even if superficially or in an unstable, fickle way. This group is not a class in the Marxian sense but a group across class lines who wish to maintain the current state of affairs to maintain the advantage that they have gained at the expense of others. They do not want to see anything radical or even mildly disruptive to the status quo.
Socialist Voice has recently written about housing and elections and the relationship between rising house prices and ongoing support for FG/FF. The most recent Sunday Times poll1 shows rising support for FG (24%, up 5) and FF (20%, up 4) while SF continue to fall in the polls. Some people are aghast and scratching their heads as to how with a health crisis, a housing crisis and a cost of living crisis we are set for another term of FG/FF in office. I think, however, when we consider both the concept of hegemony, written about recently in SV too, and now also of the “contented majority” it helps explain the current state of affairs in southern Ireland.
The Central Bank’s Q1 2024 financial report released in August of this year shows that net wealth of Irish households increased by €33.2bn in the quarter, to reach a series high of €1,113bn. Housing wealth, in particular, increased by €28.8bn in Q4 2023. The report notes the impact of rising house prices, assets, are having on increased household wealth, for those with houses, which now represent 66% of household net worth.
This rising asset valuation also enables households take on more debt, which they are. Household debt in Ireland increased to 27.8% of GDP in the fourth quarter of 2023 from 25.9% of GDP in the third quarter of 2023 and from a record low of 25.4% coming out of the pandemic. While these are not the highs of the Celtic Tiger years it’s arguable that there is now a mini-Celtic Tiger underway for this “contented majority”, who dare not vote for any change should that risk their fickle privilege.
