Are we are now seeing a different side of Donald Trump? Is this to be the no-nonsense bringer of peace to Eastern Europe. The man who will end the NATO-led proxy war against Russia. There can be little doubt that the US president has dramatically altered the situation vis-a-vis Ukraine and not only towards a cessation of hostilities but also seemingly offering a conclusion somewhat favourable to Moscow. How can we explain this, coming as it does, from someone who days earlier had spoken of ethnically clearing Gaza and then boasted of “letting all hell break loose” on the already devastated population of that tragic land.
There is the fanciful theory that Trump is somehow beholden to or being blackmailed by Russia. Alongside that idea is the crude assertion that the US president is hopelessly erratic and incapable of presenting a coherent, consistent programme. All of which misses the point. Flamboyantly boorish and vulgar he undoubtedly is but deeming him stupid or without deliberate planning for his desired ambition is woefully far of the mark.
Not only has Trump spent his four years out of office working on his return to power, he has also acquired a team of advisers, including the oligarch Elon Musk. These advisers have helped and continue to help shape the current administration. The White House is therefore now embedded in a symbiotic relationship with a powerful group of tech industry billionaires.
This group is, in essence, the US face of a modern-day industrial revolution based on the use of sophisticated digital technology. This body of super-wealthy industrialists is determined to promote its interests by every method available through collaboration with their fellow plutocrat occupying the Oval Office.
This is not a one-sided relationship favouring one party or the other. It is, instead, a manifestation of the outworking of governance within the prevailing capitalist economic system as it functions in the US.
At present, the United States economy is dominated by a small number of these hi-tech firms, often referred to in the financial press as “the Magnificent Seven”[1]. Significantly, by early last year this group of companies had a stock market valuation that roughly matched the aggregate GDP of western Europe’s four largest economies: Germany, Britain, France, and Italy[2].
Adding to this economic disparity between the United States and Europe is the position of what Trump calls “the mighty US Dollar”. Recent IMF data shows that globally, 58% of central banks reserves are in the Dollar. (The currency’s dominance comes with a caveat but more anon.)
As such, this gives rise to two points: one an observation, the other a question. First is the matter of Western Europe’s relative economic decline on the world stage and with it, a subsequent diminution of its power to influence events globally.
This then poses the question, from where or by whom might there arise a potent challenge to the US economy and by extension, to its imperialistic design on the globe. It requires little or no research to find an answer to that query: The People’s Republic of China. Moreover, it matters little to American capitalism that China is not a belligerent entity. Suffice that it has demonstrated the capacity to overtake the US economy in every area and arena, most significantly in the field of digital technology.
Therefore, in terms of cold-headed realpolitik, the robber barons controlling US capitalism, along with their front-man Trump, have decided to focus their hostility on China. In order to do so, they have taken the pragmatic decision to divert resources away from Eastern Europe while simultaneously attempting to at least bring about a watering down of Russia’s current commitments to the People’s Republic.
Does this mean an armed confrontation is imminent between the two powers? While never ruling out the possibility of bloody conflict, the most likely course in the medium term is an aggressive economic assault on Beijing. Think perhaps of an attempt to employ a strategy similar to that deployed by Washington against Cuba.
Already Trump is railing against the BRICS network in which China is a major participant, seeing its creation of an alternative international payment system as a threat to the US dollar’s hegemony. Paradoxically, his warning of 100% tariffs on those availing of the new facility is having the opposite effect as many countries, especially those in the global south, quietly seek the very alternative he fears.
It is highly unlikely therefore that this new cold war strategy being advanced by the United States will succeed in containing China or undermining its economy. Conditions are very different now to those prevailing when the USSR was deemed the opponent. The People’s Republic is able to offer a viable trading relationship to those unwilling to be subservient to a usurious America in a way not possible for the Soviet Union rebuilding its war-ravaged people and economy.
Neither history nor technology nor broad global political influence are favouring Trump and his clique of tech-bro robber barons.
The future is socialism not barbarism.
[1] Microsoft, Apple, Alphabet, Amazon, Nvidia, Meta, and Tesla.
[2] Cingari, Piero (2024) “US Magnificent Seven rival Europe’s top four economies: A sign of overvaluation?” Euro News 06/02/2024
