The war between NATO/EU and Russia continues but an end seems in sight. However, whether the war ends soon, or whether the EU and Britain manage to prolong it, the future for Ukraine looks bleak. Its ruling class has been a willing pawn in US plans to reimpose its dominance over Russia, which had weakened as Russia under Putin pursued a more nationalist and independent foreign policy. The US increasingly saw Russia as a rival rather than the compliant neo-colony it had been under Yeltsin. They believed that Ukraine could be used to bring Russia to heel, so it became the site for an ideological struggle between the US-led imperialist bloc and Russia, with US and EU funded “independent” citizens groups, journalists and media outlets promoting membership of the EU and NATO as a means of defending Ukrainian independence. Ukrainian fascists and nationalists made common cause with US imperialism to weaken Russia and, following the 2014 NATO/EU coup which put them in power, launched a civil war against Russian speaking and ethnic Russian Ukrainians and fully signed up to Washington’s plans for NATO expansion to the Russian border.
Pursuing this policy has left Ukraine shattered and put its future as an independent state in doubt. It has lost territory, millions of its people are in exile, hundreds of thousands have been killed or injured in the war, vast amounts of its agricultural land are now owned by US agribusinesses and Trump has demanded $500bn worth of rare earth minerals as tribute. When continuing the war ceased to be US policy, Ukraine was abandoned and excluded from negotiations, clearly demonstrating that it was a US-Russian war with Ukraine merely providing the battleground.
Ukraine’s fate should sound a cautionary note for Ireland. Our ruling class is also subservient to imperialism, with the 26 counties in a neo-colonial position and the 6 counties still under direct British rule. Back in the 1960s, the political and media establishment in the 26 counties claimed that joining the then European Economic Community (EEC) – today the EU – and opening the economy up to US monopoly capitalism would increase economic independence from Britain. This argument was bogus because the then Fianna Fáil government sought EEC membership along with Britain and had signed the Anglo-Irish Free Trade Agreement in 1966 making it easier for British goods to enter the 26-county economy. This was the official end of attempts by the Irish government to achieve economic sovereignty. It had become obvious that the Irish state would have to take a leading role developing the productive forces in order to build an economy strong enough to defend political independence. This threatened the material interests of the Irish bourgeoisie. They sacrificed the economic and political future of the Irish state to protect their own class interests.
As they now seek greater integration into EU and NATO military structures, the rhetoric has changed. Political discourse is no longer about protecting Irish independence but about “our responsibility” to play our part in the defence of the Atlantic Alliance. The words might have changed but the tune remains the same, protecting the class interests of the Irish bourgeoisie is paramount.
For now, Ireland, north and south, is of strategic value to the EU/NATO. US bases in Shannon and Aldergrove, plus the data centres enabling modern warfare, benefit US, British and EU imperialism, not the Irish people. Inter-imperialist rivalry between the US and its European allies/rivals is problematic for the Irish bourgeoisie. Their survival strategy depends on close alignment with the three imperialist centres. Irrespective of the long-term consequences of the inter-imperialist split, the Irish political establishment will continue to abandon neutrality and align the state with existing imperialist military structures. However, the speed with which Trump abandoned Ukraine should serve as a warning. Imperialism looks after its own interests, not those of its dependencies.
Involvement in imperialism’s wars is of no benefit to the Irish people. It only offers increased austerity as money is wasted on military spending, plus death and destruction in the event of war. The continued rule of the Irish bourgeoisie is a threat to the Irish people. Having sold our independence for their class interests, they are now prepared to risk the destruction of our country and our people. Only an anti-capitalist national liberation movement, with a socialist remaking of society as its end point, can bring about the reconquest of Ireland and the end of barbarity disguised as “liberal democracy”.
